Story by Mark Payne, LINK nky government and politics reporter
On a small round table, with square wooden blocks with round numbers representing 1 through 27, and a replica bourbon barrel, the ballot positions for Kentucky’s primary elections were determined on Monday in the secretary of state’s office.
Due to the candidate filing deadline being pushed back to Jan. 25, Secretary of State Michael Adams could choose a new date for ballot position drawing.
But does ballot positioning even matter?
“I can’t tell you that it does or doesn’t,” Adams said. “All I can tell you is by statute, this is how we have to do it. I guess the theory is the state shouldn’t take a position that looks like it’s giving an advantage to any candidate, so we do this by random drawing to make sure no one has that concern.”
While Adams can’t comment on whether or not it does, some studies show that it does indeed matter. Conversely, some studies show that it doesn’t.
In a research study titled “The Ballot Order Effect is Huge: Evidence from Texas,” the study author, Darren Grant, found that ballot order has a significant effect on which candidate receives votes.
“The phenomenon known as the ‘ballot order effect’ implies that candidates who are listed earlier on the ballot will receive a greater share of the vote,” the study said. “Except for a few high-profile, high-information races, the ballot order effect is large, especially in down-ballot races and judicial positions. In these, going from last to first on the ballot raises a candidate’s vote share by nearly ten percentage points.”
Because of this potential bias, the secretary of state must randomly choose ballot positioning from a hat, or in this case, a bourbon barrel.
During his time as general counsel to the Republican Governor’s Association, Adams faced a unique lawsuit regarding poll positioning.
“Our state law says that whoever carries the presidential contest, that party gets on the ballot first in the general election,” Adams said. “I think in Florida, it was based on which party won the governor’s race most recently. That was passed by the Democratic-controlled legislature in 1951.”
Republicans have held the Florida governorship since 1999, “so the democratic party sued to strike that law down, even though they implemented it,” Adams said.
“We had dueling studies and dueling experts about whether it gives an advantage to a candidate or not, and it’s just not really clear,” Adams said.
Photo: Secretary of State Michael Adams (Mark Payne)