Population and labor force growth is one of four major focus areas for BE NKY Growth Partnership (BE NKY) and our data-informed community decision-making initiative. Like many communities throughout the United States, Northern Kentucky (NKY) is feeling the effects of a labor shortage, brought about in part by an aging population and declining birth rate. Together, these factors put the region’s economy at risk of stalling.
Recent studies show Northern Kentucky is competitive, but at its current trajectory, the region is only expected to see modest population growth, so regional leaders will need to develop strategies to bring more people into the workforce, train and upskill our existing workforce, and increase attraction and retention rates through migration.
CEAD population study shows need for migration
This past year, BE NKY commissioned “Population and Labor Force Trends and Future Projections,” a study by Janet Harrah and student fellows at the Center for Economic Analysis and Development (CEAD) at the Haile College of Business at Northern Kentucky University.
The study reports that while the region has grown over the past 50 years, the growth of NKY’s Boone, Kenton, and Campbell counties has lagged the national rate. Specifically, between 1970 and 2020, the U.S. population grew by 62.7 percent, while NKY grew by 58.8 percent, or 147,559 people.
Under a baseline scenario, which assumes the current demographic growth rate and trends in the region will continue moving forward, NKY’s population is expected to be just under 457,000 by 2050, an increase of 58,429 over the 2020 population, or about a 15 percent increase. This reflects the most likely scenario unless there are policy interventions or unforeseen economic impacts that change the trajectory of net migration, which plays an important role in a region’s growth or decline.
At the same time, although the population is projected to increase by nearly 60,000 people, the labor force in prime working ages of 16 to 64, is only predicted to grow by 8,450. As the study indicates, this assumes current labor participation rates remain constant, something that is not guaranteed as the national rate has been declining.
“This was a very surprising statistic for me, seeing that an increase in population numbers doesn’t necessarily correlate to the same increase in labor force numbers,” said BE NKY President/CEO Lee Crume. “The ratio of population growth to labor force growth shows how hard we have to work in the coming years to expand our workforce.”
How do we attract new residents?
Since 2010, domestic net migration in Northern Kentucky has averaged 433 people each year. Assuming a consistent natural change rate, Northern Kentucky would need to attract 2,402 people each year, an increase of more than 400 percent from the current average, to exceed its baseline projection and reach the most optimistic average annual growth rate of 1.1 percent. If the region were to achieve this accelerated growth the corresponding increase in labor force would be approximately 34,000 over the next 30 years.
The most recent estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau suggest Northern Kentucky has seen a modest uptick in migration, with average annual domestic net migration reaching 554 people per year between 2020 and 2023. However, this remains well below surrounding peer metros in Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky.
Chart courtesy David McAleese/BE NKY Growth Partnership
“Navigating Change & Charting a Course to a More Competitive Northern Kentucky,” a report by Economic Leadership produced for BE NKY, points to “Increasing the size and productivity of the labor force” and “Building a Regional Brand and Narrative” as two critical needs for the NKY region.
BE NKY, along with other NKY organizations, is partnering with Resonance, a team of designers, strategists, and storytellers, to shape the compelling narrative that surrounds Northern Kentucky and create a livability brand that can be shared by everyone in our region. Northern Kentucky needs to not only attract new residents, but also ensure that current residents, especially recent and soon-to-be college graduates, have career opportunities here in the region.
Moving forward
Regardless of whether NKY grows at a slower or faster pace, there will be associated tradeoffs, with challenges at either end of the growth spectrum. There is no singular optimal rate of population growth that is right for every community. Rather, stakeholders must decide on growth policies that reflect community goals and values.
Data-informed community decision-making was one of four initiatives established by BE NKY as part of our Build + Elevate NKY Investor Campaign in 2022. Through this initiative, we want to enable Northern Kentucky’s business and community leaders to contribute to growth in our region by providing them with data, insights, and a forum to inform better decision-making and address community challenges.
Other focus topics, identified with input from the business community, include addressing housing affordability, improving early childhood development/third grade reading, and increasing access to transportation.
As we progress with this initiative, we are seeking to partner with businesses and organizations to leverage our resources and collective expertise to enhance the community’s understanding of these topics and the challenges they can present and work together toward solutions.
David McAleese is Research Director for BE NKY Growth Partnership.
