While a lot of talk in Kentucky politics has been on the 2023 Kentucky governor’s race, there is still a midterm election this year, and the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce wants to make sure voters know how it could impact local — and national — politics in the future.
The Chamber held a forum on Thursday to discuss the Nov. 8 midterms.
The big conversation in national politics is whether Republicans can regain control of the U.S. House and/or Senate. Currently, the Senate sits at 50-50 for Republicans and Democrats, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris serving as the tie-breaking vote.
But that could change in November, with 34 of the 100 seats up for election, including one in Kentucky with incumbent Republican Sen. Rand Paul facing off against Democratic challenger Charles Booker.
Former Lexington Herald-Leader Frankfort Bureau Chief Jack Brammer moderated the forum Thursday.
Scott Jennings and Mark Riddle joined him as panelists. Jennings is the founding partner of RunSwitch Public Relations. Jennings has served in numerous senior positions and advisory roles for Republican politicians, such as President George W. Bush and U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky).
Riddle is a Democratic political strategist and the president of Future Majority.
If Republicans gain control, longtime Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell would likely end up as the Senate Majority Leader again, Jennings said. McConnell held that position he held from 2015-2021. He is currently Minority Leader.
“It’s really on a knife’s edge,” Jennings said, referring to whether the Senate will shift control back to the Republicans. ”I think the winds are starting to blow back towards the Republicans in the last couple of weeks.”
Jennings, who is regularly featured as a political commentator on national broadcast news, referred to national polls that show Republicans gaining some traction in key battleground states such as Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Ohio. He thinks Republicans will win in most of those states.
“It is a 50-50 Senate in a 50-50 country, and all these races are being run in 50-50 states,” Jennings said.
The Senate race between Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan in Ohio is also one to watch, Riddle said.
“It doesn’t feel like there’s a wave either way right now,” Riddle said, referring to what Democrats or Republicans call it when a large swath of one party’s candidates get elected in a single election cycle. Republicans often refer to it as a red wave, and Democrats refer to it as a blue wave.
“There’s a lot of cross-currents,” Riddle said.
Democrats hold a slim majority in the House, occupying 220 out of 435 seats. Republicans have 212. Three seats sit vacant.
“I think there are about 30 seats right now that I would call toss-ups,” Jennings said. “(If) Republicans win half, they’ll have about a 20-seat majority.”
Either way the political winds shift in November, one thing is certain – both parties are spending a lot of money on this midterm election.
“We’re on track to spend about $9.7 billion dollars in this midterm,” Jennings said. “In the entire 2020 election, we spent about $9 billion. In the (20)18 midterm, it was like $4.5 billion.”
While the midterms are important, talk at the Chamber forum inevitably turned to the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election. The Republican field is jam-packed right now ahead of next year’s May Primary.
Rep. Savannah Maddox (R-Dry Ridge), former attorney Eric Deters, Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles, Attorney General Daniel Cameron, Auditor Mike Harmon, and former U.N. Ambassador Kelly Craft are all on the list.
Jennings said he thinks Cameron is currently the front runner, but that could change if large amounts of advertising money is spent, especially from Craft, whose husband is a coal magnate with deep pockets.
“I put Cameron at the top right now, but this is not a done deal for him,” Jennings said.
Cameron might be leading the current pack of candidates, but there are also wild cards, with rumors that former Gov. Matt Bevin might enter the race.
“You could get other wildcards, you know, you got this guy in Northern Kentucky, Deters, who is kind of a wildcard,” Jennings said. “It just means that somebody who can grab onto 25 or 30% could be your nominee.”
On the other side of the aisle, incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear recently announced he raised more than $1 million in the third quarter with more than $4 million on hand. A recent poll also showed Beshear with a 62% approval rating, including 42% among former President Trump voters, as he’s guided the state through major disasters.
Both Jennings and Scott agreed that Beshear is the likely winner of next year’s gubernatorial race.
“I think Beshear is, personally, right side up,” Jennings said. “His party is very upside down.”