treygrayson

Tuesday night’s wild ride at the ballot box that saw Louisville businessman Matt Bevin prevail by a mere 83 votes over Agriculture Commissioner James Comer in the the Republican primary for governor was the topic of a Friday coffee session with Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce President Trey Grayson.

Northern Kentucky Forum hosted the event at the Gruff, the popular new restaurant near the Roebling Suspension Bridge in Covington.

Grayson has a unique perspective on the dynamics of the race because he was twice elected as Kentucky’s Secretary of State, an office that will oversee a re-canvass of nail-biting finish, and then possibly a recount. Grayson also shares with Comer the identity of being an establishment Republican candidate toppled in a primary by a surging outsider. In 2010, the Northern Kentucky native, even with the strong support of Senator Mitch McConnell, was defeated by Rand Paul in the GOP primary for U.S. Senate.

As Bevin likely heads to the November head-to-head with Democratic nominee Jack Conway, the current Attorney General who also lost to Rand Paul in 2010, Grayson sees a possibly close race. “If I were Jack Conway, this is how I would have wanted this race: close, personal, and still not over,” Grayson told the crowd at the Gruff. He was referencing the contentious and nasty turn the 4-way Republican primary took when Comer was accused by a former girlfriend of mental and physical abuse and of taking her to Louisville for an abortion. Those allegations were likely linked to some involved in the gubernatorial campaign of former Louisville councilman Hal Heiner who finished third.

“Conway couldn’t have written this any better,” Grayson said, though he cautioned the Democrat because Conway also wanted Rand Paul over Grayson in 2010 because he was believed to be an easier foe to topple. Now Paul is finishing his first term in the U.S. Senate as a serious candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination. “So, be careful what you wish for.”

“There’s a couple things going on in Kentucky,” said Grayson, who returned to the region last year after leading the Institute of Politics at Harvard University, his alma mater. “There is a Republican trend. The State Senate is hugely Republican and the State House is starting to catch up. This is probably a Republican year to be elected governor. However, Steve Beshear is a popular governor. This isn’t 2003 when you’re (Democratic nominee) Ben Chandler and (incumbent Democratic Governor) Paul Patton has this sex scandal.”

In 2003, Republican Congressman Ernie Fletcher claimed the governor’s mansion for the GOP, the first time Party had won the office since 1967. Fletcher was defeated in 2007 by Democrat Steve Beshear after a hiring scandal. With the House of Representatives in the fragile control of the Democrats, and the Republicans breathing down their necks each election cycle, might Bevin break through and claim the governorship for the Republicans again?

“You do have a divided Republican Party,” Grayson said. “It may come together. My suspicion is that it may come together.” He said that he was told privately by some Democrats that they were not excited about a Conway candidacy but in a match-up against Bevin, the race seems winnable. “They think he’s got a chance to win. That perception of victory matters.”

Grayson cited the Fletcher campaign in 2003 as evidence that belief in the possibility of victory can change a race’s dynamics. Once the first poll came out that year and showed Fletcher leading Chandler, “It framed the race (for) journalists, donors, activists.”

“I’ll be interested to see what the first poll shows,” Grayson said. “What that first poll says could shape the frame of the election. I give the edge to Conway, but I would have in 2010, too.”
 
Northern Kentucky’s turnout weak again
 
When Grayson ran for Senate in 2010, he emphasized that he was from Northern Kentucky in his local ads. However, for statewide candidates, Northern Kentucky can be tough to reach because the Cincinnati media market is the most expensive. While Louisville and Lexington TV stations are bombarded with campaign ads, Northern Kentucky often barely hears a peep.
 
“We know more about what’s going on in Cincinnati City Council,” Grayson said of local media coverage in the region. He noted that a recent report showed that the Queen City gained population, but still was below the 300,000 threshold. “We have more than that,” he said of Northern Kentucky as a whole. 
 
“There’s not a lot of media that people read that cover Kentucky government and politics, no radio station that covers it, TV stations don’t cover it.” Grayson said that when he was running for Senate, he maybe made five appearances on Cincinnati TV during the campaign. On Election Day, he was on Kentucky stations five times before 7 a.m. “There’s an information problem.”
 
Comer selected Kenton County State Senator Chris McDaniel (R-Taylor Mill) as his running mate, but even with a Northern Kentuckian on the ticket, enthusiasm remained low in the region and turnout in Boone, Kenton, and Campbell Counties was lower than the statewide average. In fact, Bevin won all three handily.
 
Grayson said that McDaniel, in spite of the apparent loss, enhanced his reputation. “Chris could substitute for Jamie in debates,” Grayson said. At a debate at Northern Kentucky University, McDaniel did just that, facing Bevin, Heiner, and former Supreme Court Justice Will T. Scott, who finished a distant fourth on Tuesday. “I’m not sure he could do more. It’s a reminder that at the end of the day, you vote for the top of the ticket.”
 
Grayson predicted that McDaniel will be more influential in Frankfort as chair of the Senate Appropriations and Revenue Committee and because he impressed people across the state.
 
Young candidates & shifting views
 
In 2010, when Grayson was challenging Paul for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination, both candidates expressed their opposition to same-sex marriage. Grayson told The River City News on Friday that he has since changed his views on that topic, a revelation that comes as the U.S. Supreme Court weighs a Kentucky case that could possibly lead to nationwide recognition of gay unions.
 
In 2004, by a 3 to 1 margin, Kentucky voters enshrined into the state constitution discrimination against gay couples wanting to get married. The issue resurfaced in the 2015 primaries because Conway, as Attorney General, declined to defend the state’s position after a federal appeals court judge deemed it unconstitutional. Conway was reduced to tears when he called a press conference announcing that he would not proceed in fighting same-sex marriage. Beshear hired a private law firm to argue for the Commonwealth in D.C. All four Republican gubernatorial candidates expressed their opposition to gay marriage.
 
“This will be a huge issue in late June,” Grayson said, noting when the Supreme Court is expected to rule, “because it will be the number one issue that we’re talking about when the Supreme Court decides one way or the other.” Grayson is unsure whether it will be a major issue in the fall campaign though he said it could be used by Bevin as a way to break into rural Kentucky counties as both candidates are from Louisville. Polls show that despite a national trend towards support, Kentucky remains mostly opposed to same-sex unions.

The issue of health care is also likely to be a dominant narrative. Bevin said that he wanted to dismantle kynect, the Kentucky health care exchange made possible through the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare. Hundreds of thousands of Kentuckians gained health insurance through the program, elevating Beshear’s national profile. However, in last year’s U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell and Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, voters seemed confused by the connection between kynect, which is popular, and Obamacare, which is not.

Whether Conway fully embraces the program that Grimes ran away from leading up to her 16-point defeat, Grayson wasn’t sure. 

Another interesting observation for voters in the fall will be the relative youth of the candidates. Bevin and Conway are both in their forties and candidates for treasurer, agriculture commissioner, secretary of state, and attorney general are young, too. 

“Both parties have some young, potential up-and-coming folks,” Grayson said. “Unlike in past years, this is a pretty quality pool. There’s nobody standing out as someone who would be unqualified. We’ve had that in the past.”

Written by Michael Monks, editor & publisher

Photo: Trey Grayson (by Mark Collier of Fort Thomas Matters)