Let’s have some fun. Of course coaches will tell you “we’re taking it one game at a time” and rightfully so, but we’re not.
So, the way the KHSAA football playoffs works and has been explained here before, but come the third round the RPI plays a big part in setting up matchups. The bracket is reset for the eight teams left standing in each class, Districts 1-4 and 5-8 are paired based off their RPI. The top two in one pod (1-4) host the bottom two, same goes for the other pod (5-8).
With that being said, we’re looking ahead to those potential matchups. Upsets will happen, but taking our best guess of who will be left standing after the second round, this is our forecast on what the third round will look like. Come the fourth round, the bracket resets statewide and the top two will host regardless of district with the bottom two left hitting the road.
Class 6A
— District champions in Districts 1-4 are McCracken County, South Warren, St. Xavier and Male.
Where they stand in RPI:
1. South Warren, 3. St. Xavier, 8. Male, 10. McCracken County
What does this mean?
If all four win, McCracken County would play at South Warren, Male at St. Xavier.
Potential wrenches in this:
McCracken County will most likely play Henderson County in the second round, the Mustangs beat them 55-42 in the first meeting this season. Male will most likely play DuPont Manual in the second round. Manual beat them 52-13 on Halloween. Manual is No. 2 in RPI in 6A.
Most likely scenario:
McCracken County at South Warren, St. Xavier at DuPont Manual
— District champions in District 5-8 are Trinity, Ryle, Tates Creek and Frederick Douglass.
Where they stand in RPI:
4. Trinity, 5. Frederick Douglass, 6. Ryle, 21. Tates Creek
What does this mean?
If all four win their first two rounds, Tates Creek at Trinity, Ryle at Frederick Douglass
Potential wrenches in this:
I feel pretty strong Trinity, Frederick Douglass and Ryle will get through their first two rounds. I don’t see Tates Creek beating George Rogers Clark and Madison Central in the first two rounds.
Most likely scenario:
Madison Central at Trinity, Ryle at Frederick Douglass
Class 5A
District champions in Districts 1-4 are Owensboro, Bowling Green, Atherton and Fairdale.
Where they stand in RPI:
2. Owensboro, 6. Atherton, 13. Bowling Green, 17. Fairdale
What does this mean?
If all four win their first two rounds, Fairdale at Owensboro, Bowling Green at Atherton.
Potential wrenches in this:
Class 5A doesn’t have a juggernaut, so anything is possible. Owensboro will have a tough second round matchup against either Madisonville-North Hopkins or Greenwood, Bowling Green and Atherton should be fine, but Fairdale’s second round matchup is a toss-up against most likely Butler. I do think this side of the bracket holds to form.
Most likely scenario:
Fairdale at Owensboro, Bowling Green at Atherton
— District champions in Districts 5-8 are Cooper, Woodford County, West Jessamine and Pulaski County.
Where they stand in RPI:
1. Pulaski County, 3. Woodford County, 9. Cooper, 11. West Jessamine
What does this mean?
If all four win their first two rounds, West Jessamine at Pulaski County, Cooper at Woodford County
Potential wrenches in this:
Cooper will have two tough matchups against South Oldham and most likely Scott County. Woodford County should be okay against Boone County and then most likely Collins. Pulaski County should be fine and West Jessamine is the most likely to have a tough time advancing, their second round matchup will most likely be against North Laurel, who is No. 4 in RPI in 5A.
Most likely scenario: Cooper at Pulaski County, North Laurel at Woodford County
Class 4A
— District champions in Districts 1-4 are Paducah Tilghman, Elizabethtown, North Oldham and Franklin County
Where they stand in RPI:
3. Franklin County, 5. Paducah Tilghman, 10. Elizabethtown, 14. North Oldham
What does this mean?
If all four win their first two rounds, North Oldham at Franklin County, Elizabethtown at Paducah Tilghman
Potential wrenches in this:
Franklin County, Paducah Tilghman and North Oldham should be fine. Etown will have a tough second round matchup with Logan County, who is No. 7 in RPI.
Most likely scenario:
North Oldham at Franklin County, Logan County at Paducah Tilghman
— District champions in Districts 5-8 are Highlands, Johnson Central, Boyle County and Corbin.
Where they stand in RPI:
1. Boyle County, 2. Johnson Central, 4. Highlands, 8. Corbin
What does this mean?
If all four win their first two rounds, Corbin at Boyle County, Highlands at Johnson Central
Potential wrenches in this:
Highlands, Boyle County and Corbin should be fine, but Covington Catholic is the key player here. They’d play at Johnson Central in the second round. I think the Colonels can get them. CovCath is No. 9 in RPI. Crazy to say, but will the Bluebirds be Colonel fans in round two so they can have another home game in the third round?
Most likely scenario:
Covington Catholic at Boyle County, Corbin at Highlands
Class 3A
— District champions in Districts 1-4 are Murray, Glasgow, Christian Academy-Louisville and Lexington Catholic
Where they stand in RPI:
1. CAL, 3. Murray, 6. Glasgow, 7. Lexington Catholic
What does this mean?
If all four win their first two rounds, LexCath at CAL, Glasgow at Murray
Potential wrenches in this:
Barring a big upset, all four should be fine. I think all four hold to form.
Most likely scenario:
LexCath at CAL, Glasgow at Murray
— District champions in Districts 5-8 are Lloyd Memorial, Russell, Bell County and Lawrence County
Where they stand in RPI:
2. Lloyd Memorial, 4. Bell County, 5. Lawrence County, 11. Russell
What does this mean?
If all four win their first two rounds, Russell at Lloyd Memorial, Lawrence County at Bell County
Potential wrenches in this:
Bell County is the lone team I see making it through with ease. Lloyd Memorial, Russell and Lawrence County all have tough second round matchups. Lloyd would host East Carter, Russell would host Bourbon County and Lawrence County would host Rockcastle County. none of those are gimmies. At the end of the day however, I see it holding true to form.
Most likely scenario:
Russell at Lloyd Memorial, Lawrence County at Bell County
Class 2A
— District champions in Districts 1-4 are Mayfield, Owensboro Catholic, Somerset and Lexington Christian Academy.
Where they stand in RPI:
1. Owensboro Catholic, 2. LCA, 3. Mayfield, 6. Somerset
What does this mean?
If all four win their first two rounds, Somerset at Owensboro, Mayfield at LCA
Potential wrenches in this:
These four district champions are pretty stout. I don’t see an upset here.
Most likely scenario:
Holds true to form. Somerset at Owensboro Catholic, Mayfield at LCA
— District champions in Districts 5-8 are Beechwood, Breathitt County, Prestonsburg and Belfry
Where they stand in RPI:
4. Belfry, 5. Beechwood, 7. Prestonsburg, 9. Breathitt County
What does this mean:
If all four win their first two rounds, Breathitt County at Belfry, Prestonsburg at Beechwood
Potential wrenches in this:
Belfry, Beechwood and Prestonsburg should be fine. Breathitt County has a tough matchup in the second round with Bracken County.
Most likely scenario:
I think the top four hold. Breathitt County at Belfry, Prestonsburg at Beechwood
Class 1A
— District champions in Districts 1-4 are Russellville, Campbellsville, Newport Central Catholic and Holy Cross.
Where they stand in RPI:
3. Campbellsville, 6. Newport Central Catholic, 8. Holy Cross, 20. Russellville
What does this mean:
If all four win their first two rounds, Russellville at Campbellsville, Holy Cross at NewCath
Potential wrenches in this:
I’d be really surprised if Russellville makes it past Holy Cross (Louisville) and Kentucky Country Day. KCD is No. 2 in RPI, so they’d throw a definite wrench in NewCath’s plans of hosting the third round. Campbellsville and NewCath should be fine, Holy Cross will have their work cut out against Newport in the second round.
Most likely scenario:
Newport at KCD, NewCath at Campbellsville
— District champions in Districts 5-8 are Sayre, Raceland, Middlesboro and Pikeville.
Where they stand in RPI:
1. Raceland, 4. Pikeville, 5. Middlesboro, 7. Sayre
What does this mean:
If all four win their first two rounds, Sayre at Raceland, Middlesboro at Pikeville
Potential wrenches in this:
Sayre, Raceland and Pikeville should be fine. Middlesboro will have to get past Hazard in the second round.
Most likely scenario:
Hazard at Raceland, Sayre at Pikeville