A proposed constitutional amendment that could potentially help Republicans win more Kentucky governorships has been filed in the state Senate.
Senate Bill 10 would change the election cycle for governor and all other statewide constitutional officers to even-numbered years starting in November 2032. Senate Appropriations and Revenue Chair Chris McDaniel (R-Ryland Heights) sponsored it.
The bill would require Kentucky governors and other statewide officers, including the attorney general and secretary of state, to run for office in presidential election years – a cycle that has historically favored turnout for Republican candidates in Kentucky.
On the other hand, turnout in odd-year Kentucky gubernatorial elections “has always been a struggle,” Secretary of State Michael Adams told Kentucky Public Radio last November.
Voter turnout is historically higher in presidential election years. According to a 2023 Pew Research Center study, the 2020 presidential election drew 66% voter turnout, or “the highest rate for any national election since 1900,” per the study. That spilled over into Kentucky, which had a record-high statewide turnout in 2020 at 60.3% – or more than two million voters, Adams said in 2020.
Turnout data from the Kentucky Board of Elections shows that in 2020, 64.4% of registered Republicans voted versus 59.4% Democrats, with Republican voters outnumbering Democrat voters by roughly 8,000.
2020 was also a year when Republicans increased their state House supermajority from 62-37 to 75-25 and their state Senate supermajority from 28-10 to 30-8.
Turnout was slightly less in Kentucky in the 2016 general election but comparable to 2020 at 59.1% statewide, according to the Board of Elections. Of those voting in 2016, turnout was 62.8% among registered Republicans and 58.5% among registered Democrats. That election resulted in Republicans taking control of the Kentucky House for the first time in 95 years and the election of President Donald Trump after two successive Obama administrations.
Additionally, higher voter turnout also benefited Republicans in the 2022 midterm election at the federal level, according to a Pew Research Center study. That election flipped control of the House from 220 Democrats and 212 Republicans to a GOP majority of 222 versus 213 Democrats. (The Democratic caucus includes three independents who vote with Democrats.)
Secretary of State Communications Director Michon Lindstrom said in a statement today that the Kentucky Secretary of State’s Office “is neutral” on SB 10. But she confirmed the data shows Kentucky has seen higher voter turnout in past presidential election years.
“Secretary Adams has observed many times that Kentucky voter turnout ironically is higher in presidential elections than in non-presidential elections, even though who your governor, secretary of state, legislators, and county officials are is far more important to your quality of life than who the president is,” Lindstrom said.
A press release from the state Senate Majority Caucus Wednesday described SB 10 as a way to “increase election participation, provide local cost savings, and address voter fatigue.” In terms of cost savings, the release cites data from the Legislative Research Commission, which indicates roughly $13.5 million in savings to local governments during statewide election years.
McDaniel stressed “election fatigue” as a key reason for the proposal in a statement shared by the Republican caucus.
“I think what we see among voters is election fatigue,” McDaniel said. “There have been heated and contentious elections almost every year. We just finished a gubernatorial election where spending exceeded $44 million, resulting in endless campaign ads online, on our televisions and the radio, nonstop mailers in our mailboxes and even calls and text messages. In 2024, we will head right back into a presidential primary and general election. Giving voters a break from politics would be beneficial, especially as we continue to see increasing polarization.”
It would take a three-fifths majority – or 60 votes in the House and 23 votes in the Senate – to put the proposed amendment in SB 10 on the ballot in 2024. Should voters approve the measure, the final odd-year election for Kentucky statewide officers, including Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Treasurer, State Auditor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, and Commissioner of Agriculture, would be in Nov. 2027.
To transition to the new election cycle, winners of those races in Nov. 2027 “shall have the duration of their terms extended by one year and shall for a single term serve a five-year term,” per the proposed amendment. “The regular election for those offices shall then be held in Nov. 2032 and every four years thereafter.”