It’s still looking like November 4 will be a nailbiter for the campaigns of Senator Mitch McConnell (R) and his Democratic challenger, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes.
The latest Bluegrass Poll conducted by Survey USA on behalf of the Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV in Lexington and the Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV in Louisville, shows a 1-point lead for McConnell and a 4-point margin of error.
Three weeks ago, the same poll showed Grimes up two points. At one point, the poll, which has been conducted throughout the campaign, had McConnell up four points.
The Courier-Journal reports:
“It’s moved in Mitch McConnell’s direction,” said Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, who said that the average of public polls shows McConnell with a clear advantage.
“You have to look at the polling average, given the margin of error, the difficulty of reaching people and the difficulty of coming up with a good polling model,” he said. “The polling average clearly shows McConnell ahead.”
From the Herald-Leader:
Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, said the last three Bluegrass Polls have been a bit “like the Three Bears.”
“The first one may have been too hot for McConnell. The next one was almost certainly too cold, resembling no other polling in the race,” Voss said. “This one looks just about right, when compared to other polling data.”
The latest poll findings don’t appear to reflect any surge in support for McConnell, but instead suggest a drop in support for Grimes.
In an email to reporters, the Grimes campaign called the race “deadlocked”.
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-Staff report