This article originally appeared in the March 1, 2024 edition of the LINK Reader. Click here to subscribe.

We hear a lot in the news these days about the country’s slow economic recovery. Experts predict, after the turmoil and insecurity of the pandemic, we are coming in for a “soft landing.” We are expected to avoid a recession in favor of slow growth at about 2.4 percent per year. Yet, that growth is uneven across the country.

Regions, states and cities are competing for investment dollars and looking for strategies to attract people and businesses. Northern Kentucky is competing, too. We are growing, but we are also challenged by the need to provide the things that can bring in the people and build our workforce. Affordable and safe housing, educational opportunities, access to medical care, easy transportation routes and options for entertainment are among the things experts say we need to stay competitive and grow our local economy. 

What does this mean for our region? How do we compare with other communities of a similar size, and how do we ensure Northern Kentucky continues to grow and stay economically healthy? 

Finding answers to these questions is not easy, but it is the focus of business and community leaders, development experts, government officials, job seekers and residents alike as we move forward into the next decade and beyond.  

Trends affecting growth

“Whether you’re looking at Kentucky or the whole United States, there are three big trends that are affecting every community to one degree or another across the United States,” said Janet Harrah, executive director of outreach for Northern Kentucky University’s Center for Economic Analysis and Development.

“The rate of population growth is slowing,” Harrah said. “It doesn’t mean we’re declining, it just means we’re not growing as fast as we used to. Our rate of population growth basically peaked when the millennials were born, and it’s been coming down since.

“Our population is aging pretty much across the country. Obviously, some regions are older than others. But across the United States, our population on average is getting older. And … our population is getting more racially diverse.”

The question arises: Is there a direct correlation between population numbers (growth or decline) and economic success? Experts say it’s complicated, and it’s about more than just population numbers. Some of this depends on the number of people in the labor force and the number and quality of jobs. Harrah said it’s important to look at the entire picture to see how an economy is doing. 

“There’s no one way to measure economic success. The way I look at it is: A successful economy is No. 1, attracting and retaining people,” Harrah said. “No. 2, it’s attracting and retaining jobs. No. 3, it’s attracting new capital investment. And No. 4, it is creating jobs that are paying a living wage, and hopefully increasing the overall average wage of the community.”

Labor force challenges

David McAleese is the research director at BE NKY Growth Partnership, an economic development firm focusing on business and community growth in Northern Kentucky. He agrees with Harrah that population is a key factor in the economic health of a community, especially how it relates to job growth.

“When you’re looking at regional economic development, the traditional metrics that we would focus on would certainly be things like jobs, measured by overall employment change. We’re looking at our population, and particularly the population that is in our labor force,” he said.

“The size of the labor force is something from an economic perspective, you definitely want to try to maximize and continue to see growth in. … That’s what companies are looking for who are interested in locating to the region. They want to make sure that there’s enough people to fill those jobs, and then on top of that make sure that those people have the necessary skills.” 

He noted a U.S. Census Bureau projection that for the first time in U.S. history, older adults — those 65 and over — will outnumber children under 18 by 2034.

“At one point, 2034 seemed like far away, but here we are, knocking on the door. It’s the next decade,” he said. “If you look at some of the projections for our region, right now older adults are about 15% of the population. By 2030, they’re going to be closer to 20%. Our labor force … is going to change dramatically.”

If we want to grow, we need to look at attracting people from outside the region and beyond, McAleese said. 

“Immigration is a tough subject, and there’s a lot of political implications around it. But it’s something that collectively our political leaders are going to need to address, as well as this idea that, demographically, we’re getting more diverse,” he said. “We’re gradually seeing more and more diverse populations finding their home here. How do we make sure that, No. 1, they feel welcome? And, No. 2, they get assimilated into our economy and enjoy the same benefits we’ve enjoyed over the last couple of decades?” he asked.

If we build it, will they come?

Both Harrah and McAleese said attracting young people requires both ensuring the basics — good jobs, affordable housing, access to health care, quality childcare, transportation options and educational opportunities — while also providing the right mix of amenities and extras. 

“Housing has become more and more important in recent years,” McAleese said. “Because, not surprisingly, in order to have a sufficient population or labor force, you need to be able to have sufficient both supply and quality of housing in the type of ranges within the incomes of the population. We’re looking at what our housing supply looks like today and how many housing units we’ll need going forward.”

A recent study by the Northern Kentucky Area Development District looked at housing in the region, and BE NKY is working with the organization to understand the findings and determine the next steps. It is also paying careful attention to the quality of K-12 education in the area.

“What is the educational profile of our community? What does the quality of our schools look like? That is something we’re starting to track using information from Kentucky’s Department of Education,” McAleese said. “They do their annual school report cards. And so, we’re able to really better understand the performance of our local schools on key things like third-grade reading, which we’ve come to find is such a critical determinant of later life outcomes.” 

In addition, most people want to be some place where they are going to enjoy living, Harrah said.

“If one of your strategies as a community is to try to attract young families, then you better have a really good K-12 school system,” she said. “If you’re trying to attract young professionals who have not yet married, outdoor activities are something they usually find very attractive. Do you have trails? Do you have walking paths, things like that?” 

She noted that it helps that Northern Kentucky is in a large metro area that provides big-city attractions like an NFL team, MLB team and FC Cincinnati. We have several entertainment venues. We have world-class health care facilities, such as Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center.

A skilled workforce

Another challenge brought on by a slow-growth population is having a pool of workers who have the right skill sets to fill the needs of businesses moving into our area. One key strategy is to provide more opportunities for people to build and upgrade skills.

“I think we’re hearing this from a lot of our companies in the area. … They are having challenges finding skilled labor, in some cases, because the people that were previously in those roles have hit retirement age and have now left the workforce,” McAleese said. “Replacing that expertise and that knowledge is certainly something I think a lot of our companies, both in the region as well as across the U.S., are having to grapple with.” 

He said a lot of companies he works with have started their own in-house training programs. The need for higher-level skills places more importance on post-secondary institutions in our region, such as NKU and Gateway as well as technical and trade-skill training programs. 

“Manufacturing and advanced manufacturing has always been the bread-and-butter of Northern Kentucky, but the nature of manufacturing is changing rapidly,” McAleese said. “Making sure that people have the necessary skills to be effective in that is important.

“We have a strong concentration in motor vehicle parts manufacturing. But what does that mean as we move towards more electronic vehicle manufacturing? How do we equip those workers? And the good news is, this is very achievable. But we need to make sure that we’re aligned as a community on these priorities. If so, I think we have the collective willpower and an ability to address them.” 

Making comparisons

Our region is competing with other communities for people and businesses. Who are our competitors? Experts look at metro areas that are roughly the same size and have similar demographics. Comparisons can be tricky, as our region is part of the Greater Cincinnati area.

In fact, the U.S. Office of Management and Budget produces a list of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) across the U.S. Northern Kentucky is officially in the MSA known as the Cincinnati Metropolitan Area.

Harrah said that if Northern Kentucky were considered its own MSA, it would have a population of less than 500,000. There are about 274 metropolitan areas with a similar population size. If you divided that list up further into quintiles, we would be in the middle quintile and would compare to Ann Arbor, Michigan, or Corpus Christi, Texas. 

If taken as part of the Cincinnati Metropolitan Area, McAleese said, cities of similar size come to mind like Indianapolis, Louisville, Columbus, Pittsburgh and Detroit, as well as what he calls aspirational metros — those the media has characterized as seeing a tremendous influx of people and jobs. Those cities, he said, are mostly in high-growth Southern portions of the country, in places like Florida and Texas. 

Getting the word out

McAleese said our area has enjoyed strong growth over the last 10 years, and that puts us in a good position. And, as far as quality of life goes, we have a lot to offer. Still, the challenge has been getting the word out. 

Lee Crume, president and CEO of BE NKY, shared a story that illustrated the problem. The company did a program last fall in which it interviewed leaders from 40 local companies. Many people they spoke with said that our region was a hidden gem or a well-kept secret.

“The first time you hear that, it’s nice,” Crume said. “The 10th time you hear it, you realize it’s not a compliment. It’s actually a detriment that we have this wonderful region, Cincinnati metro, Northern Kentucky. And people just don’t know about it. How do we tell that story better to compete, especially on the population workforce side of the equation?”

McAleese expressed similar thoughts about telling our story better.

“We’ve got the amenities. We’ve got the access. We’ve got CVG. … Our cost of living is still relatively reasonable,” he said. “We don’t want to be that hidden gem. We want to get the story out. We want the potential migrants to know where we are and that we’ve got opportunity here. I think that’s our challenge going forward. And if we’re doing our job right, then hopefully, we’re moving the needle there.

BE NKY is completing a population assessment study with NKU that is expected to be published soon. It looks at how Northern Kentucky and Greater Cincinnati have grown historically, relative to 17 metro areas.