- Zeihan: Global economic shifts and demographics are set to disrupt trade and supply chains.
- Northern Kentucky’s location and infrastructure provide advantages amid uncertainty.
- Building a skilled workforce will be key to long-term regional competitiveness.
From the perspective of geopolitical strategist, author and content creator Peter Zeihan, the world order is rapidly changing.
Zeihan spoke at a private Covington Business Council event on Tuesday night, addressing local political and economic stakeholders about how the current state of global affairs could impact Northern Kentucky.
Zeihan, whose YouTube channel boasts nearly 900,000 subscribers, has authored books discussing major economic challenges facing the world, including the decline of a globalized economic order headed by the United States and forthcoming demographic challenges in China that will affect the global economy.
Because of these factors, Northern Kentucky’s economic stakeholders asked for his outlook on the region’s future economic prospects.
BE NKY Growth Partnership CEO Lee Crume introduced Zeihan, framing the evening as a forum for candid debate.
“We’re going to hear things that maybe we don’t agree with,” he said. “Maybe they’re true, maybe they’re not true in the future, but it starts conversation, and it gives us an opportunity to pause and think about where we want this greatest of all countries to go as we start our 251st year in existence.”
Zeihan’s thesis is that global supply chains will face a turbulent decade as aging demographics thin the workforce and international free trade becomes more politicized. He believes the United States has strengths, such as a longer time horizon due to favorable demographic trends, along with size and geographic features. While there may be a short-term squeeze, the country’s long-term economic prospects appear more promising.
“The reason I wanted to show you (the audience) this because I wanted you guys to see where you stand,” he said. “You’re where the agricultural zone meets the manufacturing zone,” he said. “So you guys are hip deep in the two sectors that are most affected by what’s coming in the short term. Now, does that mean it’s all bad news? Absolutely not.”
Zeihan said that current tariff policies, coupled with fragile global supply chains, could negatively impact advanced manufacturing. Northern Kentucky’s economy is heavily reliant on advanced manufacturing and logistics, with much of it concentrated around the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport in Boone County. The area is home to companies like General Electric Aerospace, Bosch, and Mubea, among others.
If tariff policies or supply shortages disrupt global supply chains, Northern Kentucky’s economy could be affected.
Zeihan’s analysis partly depends on China’s demographic decline, where the world’s largest manufacturing country faces record-low birth rates, a shrinking population, and an aging workforce that jeopardize its industrial capacity.
On the positive side, Zeihan said Northern Kentucky’s geographic location gives it entrenched advantages to weather the storm of potential economic turbulence.
Additionally, the presence of manufacturing companies has contributed to the expansion of many trucking and airport cargo services, thanks to nearby major infrastructure like CVG and Interstates 71/75. Northern Kentucky is situated at one of the busiest road, river, and rail hubs in the continental United States, providing a wide range of options for transporting essential goods.
Another point Zeihan raised was that additional investment is needed in the local workforce to prepare them for the shifting economic tides. This calls for continued investment in technical colleges and training programs. Key growth areas will include the construction and skilled trades, with Zeihan highlighting industrial electricians, welders, and precision fabricators.
“People who know to use these sort of machines and metal stamps,” he said. “We need so many more.”
Looking forward, Zeihan believes that if local stakeholders are proactive, Northern Kentucky can set up its economy to succeed in the face of immense external pressures.
“Some people like really tactical advice, so I’m going to leave you with this one –no matter what it is we build, no matter how technology evolves, no matter what the international system looks like, a lot of the industrial plants that we have right now will have to change,” he said.
