Two hundred and sixty-one new Drees Homes properties could be coming to a tract of land near Harris Pike, KY-536, in unincorporated Kenton County. Most of the land, like much of the county’s undeveloped land, is unused agricultural space. Single-family homes straddle the northwest border of the tract’s 120.5 acres, and one resident is concerned about what the development might bring—water.
“When we had the ’97 flood, I was spastic thinking it was going to flood our home in the main house, and it did not,” said Erma Jean Gilbert, “just barely.”
Gilbert’s case is a peculiar situation at the intersection of development, the environment, infrastructure and housing in Northern Kentucky. It’s emblematic of the variables that define the region’s ongoing worries around housing , whether that’s for residents, businesses or governmental organizations.
The Kenton County Planning Commission approved a zoning change for the development at their meeting in September, and the Kenton County Fiscal Court will finalize the zoning in the coming weeks.
The tract itself can support 2.41 housing units per buildable acre. 45.2 acres of the 120.5 total acres are open space. Sixty-nine of the lots in the development would be 65 feet wide, and the remaining 192 would be 52 feet wide.
Most of the houses therein would be conventional single-family homes, but a handful would also be patio homes: smaller, often single-story homes with maintenance provided by a homeowners association. Patio homes are often marketed to empty nesters and retirees who would rather not deal with maintenance issues.
Lot sizes were determined by market demand, said Matt Mains, a land development manager with Drees, to the planning commission. He said the homes would run anywhere between $350,000 and $550,000, depending on their size.
Gilbert shared her concerns about flooding with the planning commission and reiterated them in a follow-up interview with LINK nky.
The ’97 flood she referenced refers to the exceptional flooding that occurred along the Ohio River, across Kentucky generally and in parts of Indiana early in 1997.
A storm system drew moist air out of the Gulf of Mexico northward where it met a stationary front over Kentucky. This nearly immobile front generated and regenerated thunderstorms throughout the latter parts of February and into March.
Ninty two counties in Kentucky and 14 counties in Indiana declared emergencies. 19 people in Kentucky died, and the flood caused about $400 million in property damage, according to the National Weather Service.
Flooding events in the region since then have been less dramatic, but concerns about flooding and sewage backups are common topics in public meetings related to development. This is due to two main factors: the region’s geography, especially as it relates to the river cities, and the region’s infrastructure.
Many of the region’s sewer systems still use old combined sewer systems, which channel excess water from both sewers and rainfall through the same system, making them liable to backups and overflows. Sanitation District 1 is currently updating much of the region’s old combined sewer systems. Other mitigation measures are slated to take place as well, such as the anti-flooding measures the City of Covington secured for the Peaselburg neighborhood as part of the Brent Spence Corridor project.
There were 477 flooding events in the Northern Kentucky Area Development District–which includes Boone, Kenton, Campbell, Owen, Pendleton, Gallatin, Carroll and Grant Counties–from 1996 to 2022, according to the development district’s 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan. Ten deaths and about $55 million in economic losses were recorded during that time frame.
Flooding inevitably occurs along rivers, creeks and other natural waterways (Gilbert’s property has two nearby creeks). Flash flooding often occurs near roadways, and the area development district points to Boone County’s roads as especially vulnerable.
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Gilbert, who is retired and a widow, feared that she would not be able to financially deal with any damage that might occur if the development makes flooding worse. She was hesitant to leave her family home of 32 years, but, given her concerns, she hoped that Drees would consider buying up her property.
Mains, who also spoke with LINK nky a little less than a week after the meeting, said that it was too early to say for sure if Drees would buy Gilbert’s property. The project is in a very early phase; the final zoning for it hasn’t even been approved yet.
Moreover, he said, a lot was still up in the air as it related to the ongoing expansion of KY-536, which runs along the northern border of the land tract. The progress of that project will inevitably frame what Drees can do with the land.
Still, there was one thing he said to both LINK nky directly and the planning commissioners.
“We’re not going to create a bigger problem,” Mains said.
He added that Drees always strove to be good neighbors and wouldn’t consider developing the area if they believed it would adversely affect the community.
Only one member of the Kenton County Planning Commission voted against Drees’ zoning request: Covington Representative Kareem Simpson. Simpson was a member of the commission’s sub committee on housing while it was crafting its newest version of the Kenton County Comprehensive Plan, which the commission passed on the same night.
The flooding wasn’t the reason he voted against the request. Instead, he was more concerned that the Drees development would fail to meet the housing needs of the region.
Simpson spoke on the phone with LINK nky after the meeting and discussed how the Drees development fit into the region broadly.
Like many in the region, he pointed to a housing study published by the area development district last year, which showed, among other things, a shortage of smaller, relatively inexpensive entry-level housing.
A study of housing in Northern Kentucky has revealed troubling trends for housing in the region, with the largest need being for “workforce housing” for households earning between $15 and $25 per hour, with monthly housing costs between $500 and $1,500. The region needs about 3,000 more housing units to provide for people within that income range, according to the study. The demand for one- to two-bedroom rentals and owned properties consistently exceeds their supply, while supply for three and four-bedroom properties consistently exceeds demand. The study suggests that the region needs to build 6,650 housing units to support economic development in the next five years, which equates to 1,330 units per year. Read more here.
Understanding NKY’s housing shortage
There are several reasons for this: inflationary pressures, expenses related to regulatory compliance and population growth outpacing the number of new homes being built.
As building costs go up, it becomes harder to profit from smaller starter homes. Builders are unwilling to risk investing in smaller properties because they’re less likely to recoup the costs incurred in building them, which puts more strain on the existing supply of smaller homes.
“Right now it’s nearly impossible to build affordable housing for what affordable housing costs,” Mains told the commission.
Mains told LINK nky that Drees tried to ensure their home designs were as efficient as possible in order to make the best use of the land and control costs. Although Drees has recently begun building more attached housing (i.e. condos and town homes), they do not build apartments.
While Simpson admitted there were pressures related to infrastructure, in his mind, that wasn’t the main reason smaller, higher density housing tended to fail in the region. Instead, it was a matter of perception.
“It still comes to fruition every time a large scale housing development is proposed,” Simpson said. “You have a lot of people saying, ‘Well, we don’t want crime to rise,’ or ‘We don’t want our property values to diminish.'”
Moreover, he described developers’ tendency to simply follow profit headwinds–which currently incentivizes the large, detached home-filled developments Drees was planning– as “an outdated model.”
When asked what an alternative might be, Simpson said, “We need to look at this model of building homes. If we’re going to really address affordability, we have to work outside of the original model or the old model of building homes.
“So, is that working with the government more? Probably. Is that builders working with the government more to get subsidies? Maybe. Is that working with organizations that are already working in this affordable housing space that too could help ease the problem? The people that are building houses just for profitability, if they continue on the same model, it’s going to fail.”
As to whether it was a possibility Drees and Gilbert could make a deal in the future, Mains was optimistic and said that he’d be keeping in touch with Gilbert long-term.
“Hopefully, we’ll be able to work with her and come out with a better scenario,” Main said.