No one can say it can’t be done.
In fact, it happened five years ago to the day.
When Northern Kentucky’s men’s team hits the floor on Thursday night taking on Houston in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in Birmingham, the Norse will look to be the second team in tournament history to be a No. 16 seed defeating a No. 1 seed.
It was March 16, 2018 when University of Maryland, Baltimore County stunned the nation and busted brackets by beating No. 1 seed Virginia.
No. 1 seeds are 147-1 all-time against No. 16 seeds, meaning 0.006% of the time a No. 16 seed wins.
Northern Kentucky enters as a 18.5 point underdog in Thursday night’s tip scheduled for 9:20 p.m. Houston may be a tad undermanned, leading scorer Marcus Sasser’s availability in question as he suffered an injury in the AAC Championship game on Sunday against Memphis. Sasser averages 17.1 points per game, six more than any other player on the team.
The Cougars lost that conference championship game to Memphis, just their third loss this season as they enter with a 31-3 record. Their body of work before that game earned them a top seed in the tournament.
NKU is making their third trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2017, also going in 2019 and would have went in 2020, but the tournament was cancelled due to COVID. The Norse gave Kentucky all they could handle in 2017 in a 79-70 defeat as a 15-seed and lost 72-57 to Texas Tech in 2019 as a 14-seed.
Here’s how the Norse can pull an upset:
SLOWER PACE
Regardless of Sasser’s injury designation, these two teams are two of the slower ones in terms of pace of play. Houston is 343rd in adjusted tempo according to Kenpom.com and NKU is 358th. Maybe the limited amount of possessions help? After all, the No. 1 seed to make history and lose this type of game plays slower than anyone almost annually, Virginia…
MATCHUP ZONE
NKU plays matchup zone for the majority of a game. Houston doesn’t shoot it all that well from deep at 34.5%. That’s 163rd in NCAA. The key in this is rebounding. Houston is one of the better teams in the country in offensive rebounding, averaging 12.7 per game, good for 16th in the country. Chris Brandon and company will need to be active on the glass as they struggle at times in securing rebounds.
FORCING TURNOVERS
The Norse force 15 turnovers per game, which is good for 23rd in the country. A slower paced game and limited possessions, forcing those and not allowing shots is vital. The Norse feature two of the top 40 defenders when it comes to steals. Sam Vinson is 13th in the country with 2.35 per game, Xavier Rhodes is tied for 38th with 1.97.
WARRICK
Having a player with the ability to score anywhere on the floor can help carry a team to an upset. Marques Warrick has shown the ability to score anywhere at any time and place. Warrick’s a top 50 scorer in the country at 19.1 points per game. They’ll need every bit of that effort and then some.
PRESSURE
The pressure is on Houston here. They enter the tournament as the betting favorite to win the National Championship at 5/1, according to FanDuel. If things get tight in the second half, the neutral fans in Birmingham will side with the underdog and a possible Cinderella story. NKU has nothing to lose with no expectations to come away a winner here.
