Let’s preface this by saying these aren’t predictions or picks. It’s just simply taking the top seed in the first two rounds of the KHSAA football playoffs and having them advance to the region championship round on Nov. 22 (we all know that won’t happen).
The way the KHSAA postseason works in football, once the tournament in each respective class hits the third round, the brackets then turn to RPI. At the top half of the bracket is Districts 1-4, the bottom half 5-8. The tournament re-seeds based off RPI at that point, meaning the highest two rated teams in the RPI from Districts 1-4 and 5-8 will host in the region championship round, the bottom two then playing at the higher two, the lowest at the highest, next lowest at the second highest.
Come the state semifinals, it resets statewide with the same format, the highest two seeds remaining host the lowest two seeds, regardless of where you are on the bracket.
Then comes the state championship games Dec. 6-7 at Kroger Field in Lexington.
The schedule for those games are as follows:
Dec. 6:
Class 1A, 12 p.m.
Class 2A, 4 p.m.
Class 4A, 8 p.m.
Dec. 7:
Class 3A, 12 p.m.
Class 6A, 4 p.m.
Class 5A, 8 p.m.
So…here goes.
Class 6A
Top 8 in RPI
- DuPont Manual
- Ryle
- Trinity
- Frederick Douglass
- Male
- St. Xavier
- North Hardin
- Bryan Station
Region championship matchups if top seeds advance:
McCracken County at DuPont Manual, North Hardin at Male, Tates Creek at Ryle, Frederick Douglass at Trinity
Synopsis: Ryle does not have to leave Union for the postseason. There’s a good chance they won’t be facing Tates Creek in the region championship round, either. The Commodores lost 42-0 to Bryan Station in the regular season and if the Defenders defeat Madison Central and then Tates Creek, they’d then come to Ryle in a rematch of last year’s region championship, this time on the Raiders field. Same goes for Madison Central, if they beat Tates Creek and then Station, the Indians would then come to Ryle. Big thing is they avoid Trinity and Frederick Douglass in the region championship round. This is all assuming Ryle beats Pleasure Ridge Park and St. Xavier the first two rounds. The Tigers defeated the Raiders in Louisville on Oct. 4, 31-24.
Class 5A
Top 8 in RPI:
- Cooper
- South Warren
- Woodford County
- Graves County
- Bowling Green
- Owensboro
- Highlands
- South Oldham
Region championship matchups if top seeds advance:
Atherton at Owensboro, Grayson County at South Warren, Montgomery County at Cooper, Pulaski County at Woodford County
Synopsis: If Highlands can win in the first round at home against Collins and then at Woodford County (assuming the Yellow Jackets defeat Dixie Heights), the Bluebirds would host the region championship round. Cooper doesn’t have to leave Longbranch Road all postseason. A potential Cooper-Highlands rematch could come in the state semifinals, assuming South Warren and Bowling Green handle their business as well.
Class 4A
Top 8 in RPI:
- Boyle County
- Franklin County
- Paducah Tilghman
- Corbin
- Ashland
- North Oldham
- Covington Catholic
- Johnson Central
Region championship matchups if top seeds advance:
Bardstown at Paducah Tilghman, DeSales at Franklin County, Covington Catholic at Boyle County, Ashland at Corbin
Synopsis: There’s not much of a path for CovCath to host after the first two rounds of the playoffs. Boyle, Corbin and Ashland are all on their side of the bracket, so they would need two of the three to be upset in the first two rounds in order to avoid Boyle and host a playoff game. If Corbin or Ashland do get upset, the Colonels would then not have to play at Boyle, the Rebels riding a 30-game winning streak and having won the last four Class 4A state titles. They’d then be looking at a matchup at either Corbin or Ashland, depending on who keeps advancing.
Class 3A
Top 8 in RPI:
- CAL
- Bell County
- Hart County
- Rockcastle County
- Union County
- Adair County
- Belfry
- Central
Region championship matchups if top seeds advance:
Mercer County at Union County, Central at Hart County, Lexington Catholic at Bell County, Russell at Belfry
Synopsis: Imagine CAL is going to have a say about the matchups above. With the Centurions losing to Central in the regular season, it denied them a district title despite being the No. 1 rated team in RPI in the class. Expect them to be in the third round. For Lloyd Memorial, their path is going to rack up some miles on the ole’ cheese wagon. Assuming they take care of Bath County in the first round, they’d then travel to Russell in the second round. If they can knock off the Red Devils, a potential matchup would then take them to Belfry.
Class 2A
Top 8 in RPI:
- Owensboro Catholic
- Mayfield
- Beechwood
- Lexington Christian
- Murray
- Prestonsburg
- Bracken County
- Edmonson County
Region championship matchups if top seeds advance:
Monroe County at Owensboro Catholic, Lexington Christian at Mayfield, Shelby Valley at Beechwood, Somerset at Prestonsburg
Synopsis: A familiar path for Beechwood? The Tigers are once again looking at a state semifinal matchup nearly five hours away at Mayfield if both teams keep advancing and Owensboro Catholic doesn’t get upset. Assuming Beechwood keeps winning and top seeds keep advancing, their path to the state semis would be Danville, Breathitt County and then Shelby Valley. Those three teams have a combined record of 9-21.
Class 1A
Top 8 in RPI:
- Kentucky Country Day
- Sayre
- Campbellsville
- Raceland
- Hazard
- Newport Central Catholic
- Newport
- Pikeville
Region championship matchups if top seeds advance:
Russellville at KCD, Ludlow at Newport Central Catholic, Williamsburg at Sayre, Pikeville at Raceland
Synopsis: Another class where you can probably ignore the matchups above. The Class 1A, 2nd District is loaded with top tier teams where Campbellsville is most likely to throw a wrench into things. Russellville may not even get out of their first round matchup with Bethlehem. If that’s the case, NewCath is most likely looking at a road tilt for the region championship round if they keep advancing, potentially at Campbellsville for the second straight season. The second round winner, assuming it is Ludlow vs Newport, would then gave to play at Kentucky Country Day.