Written by Anthony Banbury, president and chief executive officer of the International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Is democracy winning or losing worldwide?
That is the question I addressed in the Annual Lecture on Asian Democracy at the University of Louisville’s Center for Asian Democracy. The answer is neither simple nor reassuring. Across Asia and beyond, we are not witnessing the sudden collapse of democracy, but a sustained contest over its future.
The data is stark. According to the Varieties of Democracy Institute, today, three out of four humans live under some form of autocratic rule, a 50% increase from just two decades ago. In Asia, four of the world’s five most populous countries are now classified as autocracies, though in different forms.
But we are facing not just a change in scale, but also in how authoritarians advance.
Twenty-first century authoritarianism rarely arrives through coups. It advances incrementally, often through the democratic institutions and processes it seeks to weaken. Leaders win elections, then erode accountability from within. Courts are co-opted. Election bodies are politicized. Media is constrained. Civil society and religion are squeezed.
The result in countries experiencing this assault on democracy is not the end of democracy, but its quiet hollowing out.
Across Asia, the pattern is clear. In Cambodia, opposition parties have been dismantled through legal means. In Indonesia, pressure on oversight institutions has raised concerns about democratic safeguards. In Hong Kong, sweeping national security laws are strangling civil society, media and independent religious institutions which together served as powerful bulwarks of freedom (as 2023 IFES research in partnership with the University of Louisville’s Center for Asian Democracy found, religious dynamics can be central to the consolidation of democratic institutions).
Technology is accelerating this shift. Governments are using surveillance, censorship, and artificial intelligence to monitor and suppress dissent. In Myanmar, the military regime combines these tools with internet shutdowns to isolate citizens and control information.
These approaches are spreading. Authoritarian governments are collaborating and exporting technology. China’s Digital “Silk Road” is helping extend surveillance capacity abroad. At the same time, disinformation is becoming more sophisticated. During Taiwan’s 2024 election, coordinated campaigns used AI-generated content to shape public opinion and undermine trust.
At the same time, a growing imbalance is emerging. In 2025, global foreign aid fell by 23 percent, driven largely by a 57 percent reduction in U.S. contributions. Civil society organizations and independent media are losing critical support, weakening accountability when it is needed most.
And yet, democracy is not standing still.
Across Asia, there are clear signs of resilience. In Bangladesh and Nepal, youth-led movements drove political change. Taiwan defended its elections despite sustained interference. Malaysia and Timor-Leste show that resilient institutions can still deliver credible governance. Further afield, Hungary changed its leadership for the first time in over 15 years in a powerful rejection of governmental corruption and erosion of democratic norms and institutions.
What determines whether democracy survives?
Evidence points to three factors. First: individual commitment to democracy, including collective action and sustained civic mobilization. Second, institutional safeguards, including independent courts and credible election bodies. And finally, international support that reinforces democratic norms.
None is sufficient alone. Together, they form the foundation of resilience.
Sustaining that resilience will require renewed commitment. Democracy must deliver in practice. Institutions must function transparently. Elections must be credible and inclusive. Civic space must be protected.
Democracies must also adapt to technological change while guarding against its misuse. And they must reinvest. Governments, the private sector, and philanthropy all have a role to play. No one though has a greater role in protecting democracy than a citizen.
The stakes are high. More people are living without a meaningful voice than at any point in decades. But the outcome is not predetermined.
Democracy is being tested and, in many places, reinvented by a new generation demanding accountability and dignity.
The real question is not whether democracy can survive.
It is whether we are willing to ensure that it does.
That is precisely why institutions like the University of Louisville’s Center for Asian Democracy matter. By convening scholars, practitioners, and students to grapple with the hardest questions of democracy and authoritarianism, the Center is helping equip the next generation with the knowledge, judgment, and commitment needed to ensure that the answer is yes.
Anthony Banbury serves as the president and chief executive officer of the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), a global leader in the promotion and protection of democracy through its technical assistance and applied research – developing trusted electoral bodies capable of conducting credible elections; effective and accountable governing stakeholders; civic and political processes; and innovative ways in which technology and data can positively serve elections and democracy.
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