New poll shows Gallrein overtaking Massie in GOP primary

A new Quantas Insights poll published on May 13 shows Rep. Thomas Massie now trailing former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District GOP primary election.

In the new poll, Quantas Insights showed Gallrein moving ahead of Massie, 53% to 45% — an eight-point margin. The same pollster previously showed Massie ahead 47% to 38%.

The recent survey was conducted on May 11 and 12 among 908 likely GOP primary voters, with a reported weighted margin of error of 3.3%.

Compared with the initial poll, Gallrein has moved to a +8 in May, up from Massie’s +9 in April, a net swing of nearly 17 points toward Gallrein since last month.

“After 14 years of Thomas Massie, of self-promotion and zero results, Kentucky voters have had enough and are ready to call in a Navy SEAL,” Gallrein campaign advisor Michael Antonopoulos told LINK nky in a text.

Among likely Republican voters, the poll shows Gallrein leading with 48.3% to Massie’s 43.1%, with 7.6% revealing they were undecided or not sure yet. Among Republican voters who were unsure, 52.4% leaned toward Gallrein, while 23.4% favored Massie. Another 24.1% remained completely undecided.

“Gallrein leads on the initial ballot, wins the leaner pool, and crosses the 50% mark once those leaners are included,” read a section of the Quantas Insights analysis. “Massie is not out of contention, but the burden now falls on the incumbent to recover, and quickly, any late movement possible, reassemble undecided Republicans, and persuade voters that independence is an asset rather than a liability.”

Polymarket, a prediction market, shows Gallrein with a 53% likely chance to win the GOP primary, up from 33% just this morning. Similarly, Kalshi shows Gallrein with a 53% chance of winning the primary. 

This is the first time either prediction market has given Gallrein higher odds of winning the GOP primary than Massie. The inversion on the odds chart correlates with the publication of the new poll this morning. Massie held a healthy lead for much of April and early May, with his odds to win ranging from 70% to 79%.

Gallrein, who launched his campaign in October 2025, has received key political endorsements, with the most significant coming from President Donald Trump. The president visited Boone County in March, where he invited Gallrein on-stage during a rally and touted his endorsement of the former military captain.

Gallrein also received endorsements from Kentucky 6th District GOP Rep. Andy Barr, a colleague of Massie’s in the House of Representatives and current polling front-runner in the primary to replace longtime retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell. In addition, entrepreneur Nate Morris, a former GOP Senate primary candidate, has endorsed Gallrein.

Barr was the first of the three GOP Senate primary candidates to endorse Gallrein, likely earning him favor with Trump. Trump endorsed Barr last week.

The primary has largely been described as a proxy fight between Massie and Trump, as the sitting congressman, first elected in 2012, has drawn the ire of the president for voting against several of his legislative initiatives, such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in 2025 and several stimulus proposals during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Massie has also been an outspoken opponent of U.S. military operations in Iran.

On the campaign trail, Massie has emphasized his conservative principles and ideological independence, whereas Gallrein has closely aligned himself with Trump.

As the primary nears on Tuesday, May 19, both candidates have been actively campaigning across Northern Kentucky, delivering their final messages.

LINK nky reached out to Rep. Thomas Massie’s campaign for comment. The story will be updated upon receipt of a response.