Northern Kentucky is projected to see modest population growth over the next 25 years, according to a recent study completed by Northern Kentucky University’s Center for Economic Analysis and Development.
In total, Northern Kentucky’s population is expected to grow by .5% annually through 2050, reaching approximately 457,000 residents, according to the baseline scenario outlined in the study. The baseline projection assumes that the current demographics in a region will continue going forward and is intended to reflect the “most likely” scenario unless unforeseen economic impacts or policy interventions change the trajectory of net migration.
The study was commissioned by BE NKY Growth Partnership, Northern Kentucky’s primary economic development agency, to assess the region’s future demography and workforce composition. In the study, Northern Kentucky is defined as Boone, Kenton, and Campbell County.
The NKU Center for Economic Analysis and Development outlined four Northern Kentucky population growth scenarios using data from the 2020 U.S. Census: pessimistic, baseline, aspirational, and optimistic. Three main factors determine a region’s population growth: births, deaths, and net migration.
David McAleese, research director at BE NKY, told LINK nky that the study showed that there is not a one-to-one replacement for people aging out of the workforce.
“It’s not a one-to-one linear relationship where one person equals adding one more person to the labor force, particularly as the population continues to age and we are not replacing with more younger people,” McAleese said. “The kind of conveyor belts of the population means that we’re going to end up with not as many people in the labor force as one might think, given the expected overall population growth.”
With declining state birthrate, where will Kentucky find a workforce?
A survey by the Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce suggests that improved legal immigration policies are needed to fuel a growing workforce in the region. The birth rate in Kentucky has declined, and the population of the United States is expected to grow at the lowest annual increase since the country’s founding. Global companies are increasingly transferring employees to the U.S., and companies that hire immigrants already in the country have the opportunity for workforce growth. The immigrant economy is a key contributor to a strong regional economy, and efforts are being made to attract and retain immigrants. Immigrants make up 4% of Kentucky’s population and contribute significantly to the economy. Read more here.
In BE NKY CEO Lee Crume’s opinion, Northern Kentucky should adopt “pro-growth” policies so the region can remain competitive with other similarly sized metro areas. For reference, the optimistic population growth scenario shows Northern Kentucky growing by an average annual increase of 1.1%, or 529,000 residents, by 2050.
From Crume’s perspective, the solutions to growing Northern Kentucky’s population are to focus on investments in housing, workforce development, and quality-of-life amenities such as recreation and reliable public transportation.
Additionally, he said it becomes even more important as the overall regional population ages. The study found that 24.4% of Northern Kentucky’s population will be over 65 in 2050, up from 15.1% in 2020. Crume said regional leaders should consider this statistic when planning for the future.
“Think about the type and mixture of houses that we need,” Crume said. “It’s not just about recruiting Millennials or Generation Z; as we get older, we’re going to need a different type of house to live in.”
Crume contrasted the optimistic scenario with the pessimistic, saying that negative growth over the next 25 years would drastically impact the region’s economy. He posited that negative or stagnating population growth could lead to losing major employers and younger workers to other regions. McAleese concurred with Crume’s assessment.
“The reality is, if we don’t listen to what our companies are telling us and if we bury our heads in the sand with what some of the broader trends are in the U.S. – next thing we know, a company or two or three pulls out of our community and that starts to create a spiral where that means pessimistic scenario could play out,” McAleese said.
The next step for BE NKY and other community growth organizations is to market the study’s findings to the public, according to the organization’s Director of Marketing Cheryl Besl.
“We’re definitely planning to get it out there in Northern Kentucky,” she said.