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Whether you’re talking about tornadoes, wildfires,
extreme heat or hurricanes, the good news is that weather-related disasters in
the US are all way down this year compared to recent years and, in some cases,
down to historically low levels.
- Tornadoes: ‘lowest total in
several decades’ - Number of wildfires: ‘On pace to be the lowest it has been in the past ten years’
- Extreme Heat: The number of 100
degree days may ‘turn out to be the lowest in about 100 years of records’ - Hurricanes: ‘We are currently in
the longest period (8 years) since the Civil War Era without a major hurricane
strike in the US (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5)(last major hurricane to
strike the US was Hurricane Wilma in 2005)
There
have been many forecasts in the news in recent years predicting more and more
extreme weather-related events in the US, but for 2013 that prediction has been
way off the mark. Whether you’re talking about tornadoes, wildfires, extreme heat or hurricanes, the good news is that
weather-related disasters in the US are all way down this year compared to
recent years and, in some cases, down to historically low levels.
To
begin with, the number of tornadoes in the US in 2013 was the
lowest total since 2000 and it may turn out to be the lowest total in several
decades. The table below lists the number of tornadoes in the US for this year
(through 10/17) and also for each year going back to 2000.
(Source: NOAA,
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html)
Year, # of Tornadoes
2013-771
2012-1119
2011-1894
2010-1543
2009-1305
2008-1685
2007-1102
2006-1117
2005-1262
2004-1820
2003-1374
2002-938
2001-1219
2000-1072
Second,
the number of wildfires across the US so far this year is on pace to be the
lowest it has been in the past ten years and the acreage involved is at the
second lowest level in that same time period (table below).
(Source: National
Interagency Fire Center; http://www.nifc.gov/)
2013
Fires: 40,306
2012
Fires: 67,774
2011 Fires:
74,126
2010
Fires: 62,471
2009
Fires: 78,792
2008
Fires: 80,094
2007
Fires:
85,822
2006
Fires: 96,358
2005
Fires: 66,552
2004
Fires: 63,608
In
addition to wildfires, extreme heat is also way down across the US this year.
In fact, the number of 100 degree days across the country during 2013 is not
only down for this year, but it is perhaps going to turn out to be the lowest
in about 100 years of records.
(Source:
NOAA, USHCN reporting stations; through August)
The
five summers with the highest number of 100 degree days across the US are as
follows: 1936, 1934, 1954, 1980 and 1930. In addition to the vast reduction in
100 degree days across the US this year, the number of high temperature records
(ie hi max and hi min records) is way down compared to a year ago with 22,965
records this year as compared with 56,885 at this same time last year.
(Source:
NOAA, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/; through 10/17/13).
Finally,
as far as hurricanes are concerned, there have been only two hurricanes so far
this season in the Atlantic Basin (Humberto and Ingrid) and they were both
short-lived and weak category 1 storms. Also, the first forming hurricane this
year occurred at the second latest date going back to the mid 1940’s when
hurricane hunters began to fly. Overall, the tropical season in the Atlantic
Basin has been generally characterized by short-lived and weak systems.
In
addition, this suppressed tropical activity has not been confined to just the
Atlantic Ocean. The eastern Pacific Ocean has had no major hurricanes this
season meaning there has been no major hurricane in either the Atlantic or
eastern Pacific which only occurred one other year in recorded history – 1968.
This is actually quite extraordinary since the two basins are generally out of
phase with each other i.e. when one is inactive the other is active.
One
of the best ways to measure “total seasonal activity” in the tropics is through
an index called the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) which is a metric that
accounts for both intensity and duration of named tropical storms. Indeed, the
ACE for this tropical season so far in the Atlantic Basin is only 29% percent
of normal (through 10/17) when compared to the climatological average from
1981-2010 and it is the 7th lowest since 1950. Elsewhere, the ACE across the
northern hemisphere is only 58% of normal and global ACE is 62% of
normal.
(Source: Dr. Ryan Maue at Weather Bell Analytics;
http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php)
Finally,
another interesting stat with respect to hurricanes has to do with the fact
that we are currently in the longest period since the Civil War Era without a
major hurricane strike in the US (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5). The last major
hurricane to strike the US was Hurricane Wilma during late October of that
record-breaking year of 2005 – let’s hope this historic stretch continues. By
the way, just as a point of comparison, in 1954 the US was hit by 3 major
hurricanes in less than 10 weeks.
This article was originally run on Climate Depot.
