To compete, region must lean into assets

America’s economy is rapidly changing, and Northern Kentucky’s business leaders don’t want to be caught with their heads in the sand. 

Automation, artificial intelligence, educational changes, trade wars and other looming challenges threaten to upend the status quo, as transformative technologies and geopolitical conflicts become part of everyday life. 

This story is part of our latest super issue, which examines the future of work in Northern Kentucky. Click here to learn more.

While often viewed as a national issue, these challenges are felt most acutely on the local level. Change is often experienced first by workers, educators and ordinary residents as evolving technology transforms their livelihoods. 

When people discuss the future of work, the conversation often centers on robots replacing human jobs. A McKinsey Global Institute report projects that, by 2030, driven by faster adoption of AI, nearly 30% of work hours in the United States could be automated.

What will that look like in Northern Kentucky? 

Future of work

Manufacturing is often seen as one of the sectors most likely to be affected by automation and AI. Long considered a cornerstone of the American economy, manufacturing has experienced fluctuations since its peak during the post-World War II economic boom.

Manufacturing is one of Northern Kentucky’s largest employment sectors, and it is a key component of the region’s economy. BE NKY Growth Partnership, Northern Kentucky’s leading economic development agency, emphasizes “advanced manufacturing” as one of the region’s four key industry clusters. There are more than 300 manufacturers in the region with over 50,000 employees, including in machine tools, electronics, aviation, aerospace, and steel and metal fabrication.

A widely cited 2019 Oxford Economics report suggests that automation, particularly the use of industrial robots, could result in the displacement of 20 million manufacturing jobs globally by 2030. There are projected to be 4.6 million manufacturing jobs to fill in the United States by 2028, according to a report published by Rockwell Automation. The report found that automation is expected to reduce labor demand in certain routine or manual roles.

Under this logic, it stands to reason that one of Northern Kentucky’s vital economic sectors could experience a complete transformation through the continued adoption of advanced robotics and artificial intelligence.

Perfetti Van Melle, one of the world’s largest confectionery manufacturers, has its North American headquarters in Erlanger. The 400,000-square-foot facility produces about 6.5 million Airheads bars per day and employs approximately 450 people.

Sylvia Buxton, president of Perfetti Van Melle’s North American operation, told LINK nky that there is a misconception around the discussion of robotics and artificial intelligence eliminating employees’ jobs. From her perspective, investment in automation and AI has led the role of a manufacturing worker to evolve rather than be eliminated.

“I would say it’s less that jobs go away and more that there is a shift in skill set needed,” she said. “I think that that same shift is already occurring and will need to occur as we move into more of the AI and technology space.”

Buxton said Perfetti Van Melle has been investing in automation and artificial intelligence for years, using these technologies to improve efficiency and reduce costs. In that same period, the company has nearly tripled its workforce in Erlanger. 

“We have, over the last 10 years, invested almost $70 million in our Northern Kentucky facilities, including factory, warehouse, etc.,” she said. “A lot of that was capacity expansion, but also automation. So during that same time period, we’ve more than tripled our workforce.” 

New opportunities, new skills

Many local industry leaders, such as Buxton, believe that, although AI and automation may eliminate certain jobs, they will also create new job opportunities.

For employers, this could manifest in “task reallocation,” where machines or AI handle routine work while humans take on more interpersonal, creative or complex problem-solving tasks. Many workers may need to learn new skills to remain competitive in the job market rather than needing to find new jobs altogether.

A 2019 report from the Brookings Institution, “Automation and Artificial Intelligence: How Machines Are Affecting People and Places,” suggests that machines are likely to replace specific tasks rather than entire jobs. Although the authors acknowledge that nearly every occupation will be impacted by technological advancement, only a small number of professions are entirely automatable.

To help students and workers prepare for upcoming economic changes, regional educational institutions will need to adapt to better equip the next generation of workers. This could include increased investments in skilled-labor education, such as trades, and further education in AI training.

Workforce shrinking

David Drees, CEO of Drees Homes, one of Greater Cincinnati’s largest homebuilders, said AI’s emergence may not significantly affect the construction industry. However, he noted that demographic shifts will make labor more scarce as the population ages. According to the 2023 Homebuilders Labor Market Report, one in five construction workers is 55 or older, indicating that a significant portion of the workforce is approaching retirement age.

Furthermore, the United States’ total fertility rate was 1.59 births per woman in 2024, significantly below the replacement rate of 2.0. Essentially, the U.S. will lack enough future workers to replace those retiring.

As current workers age out of the workforce, the responsibility to take over will fall on younger tradespeople. Conversely, older workers might be encouraged or compelled to work beyond the standard retirement age of 65. To counteract this, Drees suggests that economic stakeholders invest more time and money in trade education and technical training programs. Drees heralded Northern Kentucky-based trade schools, such as the Enzweiler Building Institute, as programs that should be emulated.

“We tried to bring the conversation back towards one of our key initiatives is education, and obviously that needs to be improved dramatically here locally in Kentucky and Northern Kentucky specifically, and we need to train people to be able to utilize the changing technology that’s out there. But we probably also need to gear people up to the job they’re going to be in in the future.”

Venture capitalist Chad Summe, a partner at Covington-based eGateway Capital, believes that, because the future labor pool is shrinking, Northern Kentucky – and Greater Cincinnati as a whole – must outcompete similarly sized metropolitan areas, such as Columbus, Indianapolis and Louisville, for younger workers. This includes ongoing investment in “quality-of-life” amenities, such as bike trails, walkable cities and unique entertainment venues.

Another wrinkle in the future workforce is how older workers will respond to evolving workplace dynamics, especially regarding the adoption of AI in daily tasks. A survey of 500 U.S. professionals conducted by Yooz revealed that over 75% of workers have observed older or senior colleagues resist new technology.

Futurist Christopher Rice told LINK nky that older workers will require support through training and retraining to remain competitive.

“Fewer young workers [are] entering the workforce, and more older workers [are] sticking around for a longer period of time,” Rice said. “We have a lot of ageism in business right now in terms of employment that’s going to need to be overcome at the same time we’re thinking about lifelong learning and upskilling/reskilling needs for a long-term workforce. So we have to think about supporting, training and retaining older workers.”

Buxton believes older workers can adapt to AI integration in the workplace because she finds the tools to be intuitive. She described students who are growing up using AI regularly as “AI natives,” similar to how “digital natives” were referred to during the rise of the internet. Younger generations will become fluent in AI, with using it becoming second nature to them.

“For the folks who are, you know, at the other end of their career, I think it won’t be that challenging to learn how to use them, because the tools are pretty intuitive. And I think … in a lot of cases they’re behind the scenes without [workers] even knowing that they were there.”

Clean-up work

Although AI adoption and technological advances can be seen as a beneficial disruptive force for the economy, they’re not without critics and skeptics.

Rice warned that Northern Kentucky’s creative and customer service sectors could face disruption from generative AI, with many skilled roles being replaced by lower-paying “clean-up” work.

“One worry I have is the impact of generative AI on the arts, design and marketing industries in NKY. Those industries, along with call centers/customer support, are likely to see the biggest impacts from deployment of AI over the next few years in terms of demand for skilled workers. There’s growing evidence that there will be growth in the need for people in those professions to clean up the slop produced by AI, but those ‘clean-up’ gigs almost always pay less than the original skilled jobs producing content or serving customers.”

While some business leaders believe AI will drive adaptation among companies and employees, Rice said corporate giants like Amazon are fully committing to AI, which will transform their workforce. Amazon is one of the largest employers in Northern Kentucky, with thousands of workers at its North American Airhub at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport in Hebron.

Amazon already relies heavily on autonomous robots at that facility, but Rice believes more are likely to be introduced. He described a future not too far off when AI tools, such as augmented reality glasses, enhance human workers’ efficiency, potentially reducing their decision-making autonomy.

“Amazon has patents for using small robots launched from a central truck in a neighborhood to deliver packages, but it turns out that’s really hard to make work in terms of autonomous technologies,” he said. “So, rather than make robots more like humans, it looks like it could result in making humans more like robots. What’s been called ‘reverse centaurism.’ But in the warehouses, it’s the opposite situation: Amazon will soon have more robots than humans working in its fulfillment centers, and there’s nothing to indicate that trend will be reversed anytime soon.”

Despite the potential drawbacks, stakeholders such as Dave Spaulding, CEO of the Cincinnati-based real estate development firm Acendion Collective, see AI integration as inevitable. He believes community leaders should promote the idea that AI can be a useful resource. This approach can help the community collaboratively develop improved regulations and practices.

“The more we think of AI not as like a siloed tool but a community resource, it’ll be a better advantage in Northern Kentucky just because we’re smaller and nimble, and we’re way more open across all of our businesses, taking all of the best practices and lessons learned and spreading them across so we would use it quicker and faster than other communities.”

The future of work in Northern Kentucky is not a distant scenario – it’s happening now. Robotics is reshaping factories. AI is rewriting the rules of professional services. Offices are filling back up. Trade jobs remain scarce. And education remains the linchpin.

Local business leaders agree on one thing: Whether Northern Kentucky thrives in this transition will depend on whether the community leans into its assets, adapts quickly and tells a clear story about the future it wants to build.

“The only thing that matters is outpacing our competitive set,” Summe said. “Somebody’s going to win. Why not us?”