Written by Janet Harrah, executive director of outreach and senior director at the Center for Economic Analysis and Development at NKU’s Haile College of Business.

Determining the fastest-growing area in Kentucky isn’t as straightforward as it might seem. Various factors, such as geographic level, measurement methods and population size, play a crucial role in this analysis.

Let’s explore these nuances to uncover the trends shaping the Bluegrass State’s growth from 2020 to 2023.

1. Geographic Level: Whether we analyze growth at the city, county, or metropolitan level significantly impacts our findings. Growth patterns can vary widely depending on the geographic scope of the analysis.
2. Measurement Method: Growth can be assessed by the numeric increase in population or the percentage increase. Each method offers different insights into population changes.
3. Population Size: The base population of the area in question is crucial. For example, a 20% increase in a city with 1,000 people means an addition of 200 people. In contrast, a 20% increase in a county with 100,000 people means an increase of 20,000 people, and for a metropolitan area with 1 million people, it’s a growth of 200,000 people.

Understanding these factors is essential for accurately identifying Kentucky’s fastest-growing areas. Let’s dive deeper into the data to uncover the trends and insights driving growth in the Bluegrass State.

This analysis uses the latest 2023 population estimates data released by the U.S. Census Bureau in April and May of 2024.  Changes in population are analyzed for the three-year period July 1, 2020 through July 1, 2023.

Fastest growing cities in Kentucky

Kentucky is home to 418 incorporated places, ranging from Concord with 19 residents to Louisville with 622,981. It’s important to note that Louisville and Lexington have unique city-county unified governments, which means their population statistics are handled differently by the Census Bureau.

Table 1 below presents the population changes for the 10 most populous cities in Kentucky between 2020 and 2023.  

Despite the population decreases in Louisville and Lexington, both metropolitan areas saw overall growth during this period. This highlights the complexity and nuance involved in understanding population dynamics.

Table 1:  Change in Population for the 10 Most Populous Incorporated Places in Kentucky, 2023

	2020	2023	Numeric Change	Percent Change
Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), Kentucky	631,912	622,981	-8,931	-1.4%
Lexington-Fayette urban county, Kentucky	322,627	320,154	-2,473	-0.8%
Bowling Green city, Kentucky	72,470	76,212	3,742	5.2%
Owensboro city, Kentucky	60,272	60,140	-132	-0.2%
Covington city, Kentucky	40,936	40,972	36	0.1%
Georgetown city, Kentucky	37,786	39,462	1,676	4.4%
Richmond city, Kentucky	34,733	37,206	2,473	7.1%
Elizabethtown city, Kentucky	31,408	32,978	1,570	5.0%
Florence city, Kentucky	32,060	32,917	857	2.7%
Nicholasville city, Kentucky	31,137	32,425	1,288	4.1%

Table 2 shows the fastest-growing incorporated places in Kentucky from 2020 to 2023. Among these, only two have a 2023 population above 10,000, highlighting the nuance involved in determining the fastest-growing area in the state. Between 2020 and 2023, Pippa Passes was the fastest-growing city with a population increase of 25.9%, while Bowling Green experienced the largest numeric increase, adding 3,742 people.

Table 2:  Fastest Growing Incorporated Places in Kentucky, 2020-2023

	2020	2023	Numeric Change	Percent Change
Pippa Passes city, Kentucky	464	584	120	25.9%
Fairfield city, Kentucky	119	130	11	9.2%
Elkton city, Kentucky	2,065	2,230	165	8.0%
Richmond city, Kentucky	34,733	37,206	2,473	7.1%
West Liberty city, Kentucky	3,231	3,450	219	6.8%
Cadiz city, Kentucky	2,547	2,713	166	6.5%
Kuttawa city, Kentucky	631	667	36	5.7%
Scottsville city, Kentucky	4,294	4,533	239	5.6%
Mount Olivet city, Kentucky	343	361	18	5.2%
Bowling Green city, Kentucky	72,470	76,212	3,742	5.2%

Fastest Growing Counties in Kentucky

Kentucky has 120 counties ranging from Robertson County, with 2,313 residents, to Jefferson County, with 772,144. Table 3 presents the population changes for the 10 most populous counties in Kentucky between 2020 and 2023. The two most populous counties, Jefferson and Fayette, experienced population declines, while the other eight counties saw population increases.

Table 3:  Change in Population for the 10 Largest Counites in Kentucky, 2023

Geographic Area	2020	2023	Numeric Change	Percent Change
Jefferson County, Kentucky	782,845	772,144	-10,701	-1.4%
Fayette County, Kentucky	322,627	320,154	-2,473	-0.8%
Kenton County, Kentucky	169,271	171,321	2,050	1.2%
Warren County, Kentucky	135,028	142,229	7,201	5.3%
Boone County, Kentucky	136,468	140,496	4,028	3.0%
Hardin County, Kentucky	110,829	112,273	1,444	1.3%
Daviess County, Kentucky	103,405	103,458	53	0.1%
Madison County, Kentucky	92,993	96,735	3,742	4.0%
Campbell County, Kentucky	93,127	93,702	575	0.6%
Bullitt County, Kentucky	82,366	84,863	2,497	3.0%

Table 4 shows the fastest-growing counties in Kentucky from 2020 to 2023. Among these, only Warren County has a 2023 population above 100,000. Robertson along with Allen and Lyon were the fastest-growing counties each rising by 5.9%, while Warren County experienced the largest numeric increase, adding 7,201 people.

Interestingly, only four counties from Table 4—Jessamine, Madison, Scott, and Warren—also feature in the top 10 counties with the largest numerical population increases during this period.  This data highlights diverse growth patterns across Kentucky’s counties, reflecting both significant percentage growth in smaller counties and substantial numeric growth in more populous areas.

Table 4:  Fastest Growing Counties in Kentucky, 2020-2023

Geographic Area	2020	2023	Numeric Change	Percent Change
Robertson County, Kentucky	2,184	2,313	129	5.9%
Allen County, Kentucky	20,574	21,788	1,214	5.9%
Lyon County, Kentucky	8,679	9,187	508	5.9%
Warren County, Kentucky	135,028	142,229	7,201	5.3%
Spencer County, Kentucky	19,511	20,531	1,020	5.2%
Garrard County, Kentucky	16,963	17,829	866	5.1%
Scott County, Kentucky	57,531	60,168	2,637	4.6%
Madison County, Kentucky	92,993	96,735	3,742	4.0%
Morgan County, Kentucky	13,735	14,283	548	4.0%
Jessamine County, Kentucky	53,024	55,017	1,993	3.8%

Fastest growing metropolitan statistical areas in Kentucky

Kentucky hosts nine Metropolitan Statistical Areas, also known as MSAs, that extend partially or entirely within its borders. Table 5 shows the population changes for these MSAs from 2020 to 2023, including areas outside Kentucky’s state lines.

Notably, while the cities of Louisville and Lexington, along with Jefferson and Fayette counties, experienced population declines between 2020 and 2023, their respective MSAs showed overall growth. This trend indicates that suburban and outlying areas within these MSAs are expanding, offsetting urban declines.

These statistics highlight significant regional differences:

• The Clarksville, TN-KY Metro Area saw the highest percentage growth at 5.8%.
• The Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Metro Area experienced the largest numeric increase, adding 19,505 residents.
• Conversely, the Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH Metro Area faced the most substantial population decline at -2.0%.

Table 5:  Population Trends for Kentucky MSAs, 2020-2023

Geographic Area	2020	2023	Numeric Change	Percent Change
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Metro Area	2,251,974	2,271,479	19,505	0.9%
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN Metro Area	1,362,955	1,365,557	2,602	0.2%
Lexington-Fayette, KY Metro Area	517,407	520,045	2,638	0.5%
Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH Metro Area	375,689	368,261	-7,428	-2.0%
Clarksville, TN-KY Metro Area	321,827	340,495	18,668	5.8%
Bowling Green, KY Metro Area	180,070	188,840	8,770	4.9%
Elizabethtown, KY Metro Area	125,702	127,576	1,874	1.5%
Owensboro, KY Metro Area	112,541	112,512	-29	0.0%
Paducah, KY-IL Metro Area	103,441	102,267	-1,174	-1.1%

Fastest growing area development districts in Kentucky

Between 2020 and 2023, Kentucky’s population grew by 17,999 people, reflecting a modest increase of 0.4%. Kentucky is organized into 15 Area Development Districts, known also as ADDs, which play a crucial role in regional planning and service provision.  The population trends across these districts highlight areas of significant growth and decline. 

• Barren River saw the largest numeric increase, adding 11,220 people (3.6%).
• Big Sandy experienced a significant population decline of 5,075 people (-3.6%).
• Bluegrass continued to grow, adding 9,719 people (1.2%). This area benefits from being a central hub with major cities like Lexington, offering ample employment and educational opportunities.
• Northern Kentucky experienced a growth of 7,712 people (1.6%), benefiting from its proximity to the Cincinnati metropolitan area and robust economic opportunities.

Table 6:  Population Trends in Kentucky Area Development Districts, 2020-2023

Geographic Area	2020	2023	Numeric Change	Percent Change
Barren River	312,618	323,838	11,220	3.6%
Big Sandy	139,743	134,668	(5,075)	-3.6%
Bluegrass	834,017	843,736	9,719	1.2%
Buffalo Trace	55,905	55,995	90	0.2%
Cumberland Valley	229,682	227,498	(2,184)	-1.0%
Fivco	134,329	132,658	(1,671)	-1.2%
Gateway	85,431	86,480	1,049	1.2%
Green River	216,737	215,009	(1,728)	-0.8%
Kentucky River	106,110	101,608	(4,502)	-4.2%
KIPDA	1,024,817	1,021,816	(3,001)	-0.3%
Lake Cumberland	206,518	209,341	2,823	1.4%
Lincoln Trail	281,049	285,487	4,438	1.6%
Northern Kentucky	469,328	477,040	7,712	1.6%
Pennyrile	214,579	213,996	(583)	-0.3%
Purchase	197,292	196,984	(308)	-0.2%
KENTUCKY	4,508,155	4,526,154	17,999	0.4%

Conclusion:  Fastest growing areas in Kentucky

Determining the fastest-growing area in Kentucky requires considering various factors, including geographic level, measurement method and population size. The analysis of population trends between 2020 and 2023 highlights diverse growth patterns across cities, counties, metropolitan areas, and Area Development Districts.

Here are the key findings:

Cities:

• Bowling Green had the largest numeric increase among cities, adding 3,742 residents (5.2%).
• Pippa Passes experienced the highest percentage growth, increasing by 25.9% but from a very small base.

Counties:

• Warren County showed the most significant numeric growth, adding 7,201 people (5.3%).
• Robertson County, Allen County, and Lyon County each saw a 5.9% population increase, making them the fastest-growing counties by percentage.

Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs):

• The Clarksville, TN-KY Metro Area experienced the highest percentage growth at 5.8%.
• The Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Metro Area had the largest numeric increase, adding 19,505 residents (0.9%).

Area Development Districts (ADDs):

• Barren River ADD had the largest numeric increase, with 11,220 new residents (3.6%).
• Big Sandy ADD experienced the most significant decline, losing 5,075 people (-3.6%).